Reprinted from agtoday.info.
In recent weeks, global potassium chloride markets have shown signs of upward price movement, with notable increases observed across several key regions. According to the latest data, the FOB price for potassium chloride in Vancouver now stands at $300–331 per ton, marking a rise of $7 at the lower end and $3 at the upper end. In Northwest Europe, FOB prices have increased to $293–401 per ton, with the lower end rising by $7 and the upper end by $1. The Baltic/Black Sea region remains stable at $280–310 per ton FOB, while Israel reports an FOB price of $312–391 per ton, up $5 at the lower end. In Southeast Asia, the CFR price holds steady at $360–380 per ton.
Brazil, in particular, has become a focal point of market attention. Suppliers are actively attempting to raise prices despite weak spot demand. Previously quoted at $355–370 per ton CFR, the price range has now been pushed to $360–370 per ton. Market participants note a clear bottom support at $355 per ton, citing tight inventories and reduced import volumes of potassium chloride in Brazil. However, buyers emphasize that while imports are expected to increase by about 2% year-on-year in 2025, demand from farmers remains sluggish. Even if prices were to drop to $350–355 per ton, purchasing interest among farmers would likely remain limited. This lack of transactions at current price levels has raised concerns about payment capacity, with some observers anticipating delayed procurement or a shift toward phosphate-based alternatives.
Data shows that Brazilian farmers have so far secured only 9% of their potassium fertilizer needs for the upcoming season, compared to 19% at the same time last year. High prices continue to be the primary deterrent. In contrast, phosphate procurement is notably ahead of schedule, with 14% of expected demand already locked in this year, up from 5.5% last year. Negotiations are currently centered on first-quarter shipments, with buyers being selective in their commitments and most adopting a wait-and-see stance toward current price levels.
In Indonesia, a major importer recently canceled a tender for 190,000 tons of potassium chloride issued on December 17, citing excessively high supplier offers. The tender called for the delivery of 180,000 tons of red powder and white crystal potassium chloride, along with 10,000 tons of white powder, in February and March 2026. Initial offers ranged from $396–400 per ton CFR, with negotiated prices later adjusted downward by $1 to $395–399 per ton CFR—matching the lowest offer in the buyer’s previous tender, which was also canceled due to high pricing. The importer has since turned to an earlier awarded tender at $383 per ton CFR, seeking optional additional shipments. Four suppliers were awarded under that tender, and the Indonesian importer is expected to request one additional vessel from each.
As global suppliers continue to test the upper limits of pricing, markets in Brazil and Southeast Asia remain under pressure. Whether these efforts will translate into sustained price increases will largely depend on actual demand momentum and buyer willingness to engage at higher levels.
